{"id":1191,"date":"2026-09-26T12:35:50","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:35:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/?p=1191"},"modified":"2026-09-26T12:35:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T12:35:50","slug":"reint-jelger-do-you-think-bitcoin-is-for-losers-and-the-euro-is-for-winners-or-do-you-think-both-bitcoin-and-the-euro-are-for-losers-and-it-is-the-us-dollar-that-is-for-winners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/?p=1191","title":{"rendered":"Reint Jelger: Do you think Bitcoin is for losers, and the Euro is for winners. Or do you think both Bitcoin and the Euro are for losers, and it is the US Dollar that is for winners"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gemini: Whether an asset makes someone a &#171;winner&#187; or a &#171;loser&#187; depends entirely on what problem they are trying to solve\u2014each system serves fundamentally different economic purposes, and none is immune to trade-offs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Euro (EUR)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Design &amp; Purpose:<\/strong> A sovereign, centralized currency managed by the European Central Bank (ECB) to ensure monetary stability and facilitate trade across 20 European Union nations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strengths (&#171;Winning&#187;):<\/strong> Provides low friction for international commerce within the Eurozone, predictable legal status, and deep, highly regulated credit markets backed by sovereign economies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trade-Offs (&#171;Losing&#187;):<\/strong> Holders bear the gradual loss of purchasing power through inflation, and the currency is tied to political and fiscal coordination across diverse European member states.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The US Dollar (USD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Design &amp; Purpose:<\/strong> The premier global reserve currency and dominant medium of exchange for international trade, energy markets (petrodollars), and foreign debt settlement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strengths (&#171;Winning&#187;):<\/strong> Benefits from unparalleled liquidity, global institutional trust, deep Treasury markets, and the &#171;exorbitant privilege&#187; of global demand for dollars.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trade-Offs (&#171;Losing&#187;):<\/strong> Subject to supply expansion by the Federal Reserve and long-term purchasing power depreciation via domestic monetary policy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin (BTC)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Design &amp; Purpose:<\/strong> A decentralized, peer-to-peer digital monetary network with a hard cap of 21 million units, operating without a central authority or intermediary.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Strengths (&#171;Winning&#187;):<\/strong> Offers absolute programmatic scarcity, immunity to policy-driven debasement, permissionless ownership, and global borderless settlement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trade-Offs (&#171;Losing&#187;):<\/strong> High short-to-medium-term price volatility, lack of sovereign backing or legal tender status in most jurisdictions, and responsibility on individual holders for self-custody and security.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A picture showing the five biggest crypto exchanges world wide (the buildings are a representation, those are not actual buildings of the exchanges).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-120.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1192\" srcset=\"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-120.png 1024w, https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-120-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-120-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-120-500x273.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perspective Comparison<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Asset<\/th><th>Key Role<\/th><th>Dominant Advantage<\/th><th>Main Vulnerability<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Euro (EUR)<\/strong><\/td><td>Regional sovereign fiat<\/td><td>Frictionless European trade &amp; stable settlement<\/td><td>Centralized inflation &amp; policy fragmentation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Dollar (USD)<\/strong><\/td><td>Global reserve fiat<\/td><td>Deepest global liquidity &amp; international acceptance<\/td><td>Ongoing supply expansion \/ purchasing power loss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Bitcoin (BTC)<\/strong><\/td><td>Scarcity-backed digital asset<\/td><td>Programmatic 21M limit &amp; decentralized ownership<\/td><td>Price volatility &amp; regulatory friction<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No single monetary tool dominates every dimension. Fiat currencies excel at medium-of-exchange liquidity and immediate price stability, while fixed-supply digital assets focus on long-term wealth preservation against currency debasement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Euro Area Money Supply Breakdown (August 2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>M0 (Base Money):<\/strong> ~3.95 trillion EUR (includes physical banknotes in circulation and commercial bank reserves held with the Eurosystem). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M1 (Narrow Money):<\/strong> ~11.29 trillion EUR (M0 plus overnight\/checking deposits). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M2 (Intermediate Money):<\/strong> ~16.45 trillion EUR (M1 plus short-term savings deposits with agreed maturity up to two years or redeemable up to three months). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M3 (Broad Money):<\/strong> ~17.65 trillion EUR (M2 plus marketable instruments like repurchase agreements, money market fund shares, and debt securities up to two years). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M4:<\/strong> Official central banks like the European Central Bank do not officially track or publish an &#171;M4&#187; metric, as M3 is considered the broadest standard measure of liquidity for the Eurozone. (In broader private economic tracking, M4 usually adds even wider liquid assets like commercial paper or treasury bills, but it is rarely standardized or officially reported for the euro). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As of August 2026, the <strong>broad money supply (M2) of the United States Dollar is approximately $23.34 trillion<\/strong> ($23,342,800 million USD). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Just like with the Euro, the Federal Reserve calculates the USD money supply using specific structural tiers based on how liquid the money is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US Dollar Money Supply Breakdown (August 2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>M0 \/ Monetary Base:<\/strong> <strong>~$5.41 trillion<\/strong>. This is the base level of money and includes $2.47 trillion of physical currency in circulation plus roughly $3.05 trillion in commercial bank reserve balances held electronically at Federal Reserve banks. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M1 (Narrow Money):<\/strong> <strong>~$19.99 trillion<\/strong>. This covers the most highly liquid forms of money. It includes physical cash in circulation outside of banks plus immediately checkable\/demand deposits and standard retail savings accounts. <em>(Note: In May 2020, the Federal Reserve changed its definition of M1 to include regular savings accounts, which is why the US M1 figure is exceptionally high relative to its M2 compared to other global currencies).<\/em> <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M2 (Broad Money):<\/strong> <strong>~$23.34 trillion<\/strong>. This is the headline metric economists watch for US liquidity. It includes everything in M1 plus small-denomination time deposits (CDs under $100,000) and retail money market mutual fund shares. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>M3:<\/strong> <strong>Discontinued \/ Not Officially Tracked.<\/strong> The Federal Reserve Board ceased tracking and publishing M3 data in March 2006. The Fed determined that tracking institutional money market funds and large long-term CDs did not provide enough additional useful economic insight beyond M2 to justify the cost of collecting the data. Private research firms still estimate US M3 to be roughly <strong>$28 to $29 trillion<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If I divide the estimate of M3 of the UD Dollar by the market cap of Bitcoin it turns out that the US Dollar is a staggering 17 times bigger then Bitcoin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Your math is incredibly accurate. If you divide the private estimate for the <strong>US Dollar M3 money supply<\/strong> (roughly <strong>$28.5 trillion<\/strong>) by the current <strong>Bitcoin market cap<\/strong> (approximately <strong>$1.69 trillion<\/strong>, with Bitcoin trading around <a href=\"https:\/\/www.binance.com\/en\/price\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">$84,000<\/a>), the US Dollar is indeed <strong>roughly 17 times larger<\/strong> than Bitcoin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This comparison highlights a few fascinating economic perspectives:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1. The Liquidity Gap<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While Bitcoin is often referred to as &#171;digital gold,&#187; the sheer volume of global commerce backed by the US Dollar requires massive liquid transactional backing. The fact that the entire value of all Bitcoins ever mined is only equal to about <strong>6% of the broadest US money supply<\/strong> shows how much room crypto has to grow if it ever intends to challenge sovereign fiat currency as a primary medium of exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2. M1 vs. Bitcoin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you narrow the lens to <strong>M1 (Narrow Money)<\/strong>\u2014which consists of physical cash and immediately spendable checking accounts (about <strong>$19.99 trillion<\/strong>)\u2014the ratio shrinks. The liquid, &#171;ready-to-spend&#187; US money supply is only about <strong>12 times larger<\/strong> than Bitcoin&#8217;s total market cap. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3. Bitcoin vs. the Monetary Base (M0)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The closest institutional definition to Bitcoin\u2019s structural design is <strong>M0 \/ The Monetary Base<\/strong> (physical cash plus commercial bank reserves held at the Fed), which sits at <strong>$5.41 trillion<\/strong>. When comparing Bitcoin directly to the <em>bedrock foundation<\/em> of the US banking system, the US dollar is only about <strong>3.2 times larger<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Is it true that at all train ticket machines in Switzerland it is possible to buy Bitcoin for people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yes, it is largely true\u2014all standard ticket machines operated by Swiss Federal Railways (<strong>SBB\/CFF\/FFS<\/strong>) allow people to purchase Bitcoin. SBB launched this service in late 2016 across its national network.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, there are a few important conditions and limitations to keep in mind:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How SBB&#8217;s Native Bitcoin Purchase Works<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Selection:<\/strong> On the ticket machine display, navigate to <strong>Prepaid \/ Money transfers<\/strong> \u2192 <strong>Crypto Paper Wallet<\/strong> and select Bitcoin.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Limits:<\/strong> You can purchase between <strong>CHF 20 and CHF 500<\/strong> per transaction.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Swiss Mobile Requirement:<\/strong> You must enter a valid mobile phone number from a <strong>Swiss mobile provider<\/strong> to receive a security code (mTAN) via SMS.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Output:<\/strong> The machine prints a physical <strong>Crypto Paper Wallet<\/strong> containing your keys rather than sending Bitcoin directly to an external digital wallet address.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Fees:<\/strong> SBB\/SweePay charges relatively high fees for direct paper wallet purchases (typically <strong>6% to 14%<\/strong> depending on the amount).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alternative Method (Swiss QR-Bills)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you don&#8217;t have a Swiss phone number or want to send funds directly to an existing crypto wallet, third-party services like Mt Pelerin allow you to generate a Swiss <strong>QR-bill<\/strong> online. You can scan and pay this QR-bill in cash (CHF or EUR) at any SBB ticket machine, which then routes the Bitcoin directly to your personal wallet address.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Clarifications<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Buying Tickets:<\/strong> You <strong>cannot<\/strong> use Bitcoin to buy train tickets at the machine; SBB only uses the machines as a distribution\/vending channel for crypto.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Private Regional Rail Lines:<\/strong> This applies to SBB\/CFF\/FFS network machines; smaller regional private transport networks may use different vending hardware that does not support the service.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a picture explaining the services of BINANCE:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-121.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1193\" srcset=\"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-121.png 1024w, https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-121-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-121-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/baarda.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/afbeelding-121-500x273.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gemini: Whether an asset makes someone a &#171;winner&#187; or a &#171;loser&#187; depends entirely on what problem they are trying to solve\u2014each system serves fundamentally different economic purposes, and none is immune to trade-offs. The Euro (EUR) The US Dollar (USD) &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/?p=1191\">Weiterlesen <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1191","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1191"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1191\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1194,"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1191\/revisions\/1194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1191"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1191"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/baarda.ch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1191"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}